Sunday’s meeting between the Washington Commanders and New York Jets at the Meadowlands will pit the league’s worst offense, the Jets — who sit as a 3-point favorite in NFL odds — vs. the league’s worst defense in the Commanders.
With Sam Howell getting the nod to start, should bettors be looking to fade his passing total in a game where that the QB doesn’t play four quarters after Jacoby Brissett’s performance in Week 15?
I break down the Week 16 odds and offer my free NFL picks for Commanders vs. Jets on Sunday, December 24.
Commanders vs Jets odds
Commanders vs Jets predictions
Following Washington Commanders QB Sam Howell’s 11-for-26 performance for 102 yards last week, hot-seated head coach Ron Rivera stated that the 23-year-old will remain the starter against the New York Jets.
The rookie QB has put together dreadful back-to-back starts, completing just 47% of his passes for 229 yards and two picks. He was benched in the fourth quarter last week for Jacoby Brissett, and the backup threw for 124 yards and two scores on just eight completions. Brissett had more yards in half a quarter than Howell had in over three.
With Rivera likely done in D.C. after the season, he has no reason to keep Howell in if he is struggling vs. a good Jets defense that still sits fifth on the season in success rate vs. the pass. If Howell continues to look bad, he will not see four quarters, making his Under 212.5 passing yards my best bet.
Most of the time, books will be hesitant to put out a market in these cases, but bettors can take advantage in Week 16. The books have priced this in as his total was 260.5 last week as a giant underdog, but a poor first half could be lights out for Howell.
The Commanders could also be dealing with a lead in this game which would decrease the overall Washington pass volume which is something that hasn’t happened during the five-game losing streak. A small chance of rain doesn’t help his cause either.
My best bet: Sam Howell Under 216.5 passing yards (-110 at bet365)Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Commanders vs Jets same-game parlay
Sam Howell Under 216.5 passing yardsBreece Hall Over 46.5 rushing yardsGarrett Wilson Under 5.5 receptions
+475 at bet365
THE BLITZ is projecting a sub-200 passing game from the Washington QB, which could be generous if he plays like he has over the last two weeks. Possibly down two members of his starting O-line and his No.1 running back isn’t helping the cause.
Breece Hall could be busy with Siemian under center. The Commanders have been awful vs. the pass but their rush defense has also been below average. Hall could be a busy bee on Sunday, especially if New York is holding anything that resembles a lead.
Garret Wilson is expected to have a big game thanks to the worst secondary in football, but his QB situation is ugly and six catches is a big number. THE BLITZ is projecting 4.03 for the New York WR.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
