The Chicago Bears start a new era on Sunday as Caleb Williams makes his NFL debut against the Tennessee Titans at Soldier Field.
However, it’s the Tennessee backfield that has my attention, and our Titans vs. Bears predictions are eyeing the props market for Tony Pollard. Find out more in my NFL picks for Sunday, September 8.
Titans vs Bears prediction
My best betTony Pollard Over 10.5 receiving yards (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The days of the ground-and-pound attack from the Tennessee Titans are a thing of the past following the hiring of pass-happy head coach Brian Callahan and the offseason signings of wide receivers Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd.
Running back Tony Pollard was also brought in after recording 94 receptions for 682 yards in the past two seasons with the Dallas Cowboys. Pollard finished with double-digit receiving yards in 24 of 36 games during the two years, including in each of his three postseason starts.
How Callahan and first-year offensive coordinator Nick Holz split up the backfield work between Pollard and second-year RB Tyjae Spears is a big-time question leading into the Week 1 matchup between the Titans and Chicago Bears. It’s also a reason we’re landing a lower receiving yards total for Pollard after he closed with a 20.5 total in nine of his final 10 games last season, with the outlier a 15.5 benchmark.
Still, we got a glimpse at how the Titans might approach the backfield split during their final preseason game. Pollard received the start and scored a touchdown on the first possession before Spears entered the game for Tennessee’s second drive. Pollard also spelled Spears for a fourth-down play and the first-year Titan hauled in a 14-yard reception to extend the drive to finish off his final dress rehearsal. Spears, meanwhile, saw action with backup quarterback Mason Rudolph during the third Tennessee possession.
In addition to the noted Pollard preseason reception, he also caught each of his other three targets to finish with four receptions and 38 total receiving yards across his two exhibition games. Additionally, Pollard rushed nine times for 52 yards, while Spears was held to just 14 yards on seven carries.
While Holz continued to suggest there will be close to an even workload split as recently as Thursday, I’m still confident in Pollard playing enough to clear this decreased receiving total against Chicago.
#Titans’ OC Nick Holz on Tony Pollard / Tyjae Spears usage. pic.twitter.com/s0bqH6oWhf
— Paul Kuharsky (@PaulKuharskyNFL) September 5, 2024
With the Titans road underdog in Week 1, there’s also added potential for Tennessee to lean on the aerial attack. While Chicago projects to be an improved team across the board, last season saw the Bears allow opposing backs to have success in the passing game with the second-most receptions (107) and a league-high 1,003 receiving yards.
MORE NFL FREE PICKS
Titans vs Bears same-game parlay
Tony Pollard 10+ receiving yardsTony Pollard Over 39.5 rushing yardsTyjae Spears Under 39.5 rushing yards
+325 at BetMGM
It’s shortsighted to put too much stock into preseason results, but there was a sizable gap in the backfield production from Pollard and Spears. Spears was also drafted under the watch of the prior coaching regime, while Pollard was brought in with Callahan and Holz in the mix.
The highlighted Holz clip also suggested there would be fluidity to how the backfield reps would be split, and I think we’ll see Pollard finish Week 1 with more touches, targets, and a higher snap count. Spears being involved is also important because Pollard’s rushing and receiving efficiency dipped considerably last year when he was slotted into a more featured role.
Pollard went for 5.2 yards per tote and 9.5 yards per reception in 2022 before dipping to respective 4.0 and 5.7 marks last season.
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